FSU Local Forecasting Contest
Fall
2000
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FSU Local Forecasting Contest |
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The FSU Local Forecast Contest is run weekly during the weeks specified for the contest. Two sites are picked (one is always Tallahassee, TLH while the other is pre-determined) and forecasts of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation forecasts are made for a 48-hr (2-day) period from 06Z on Saturday to 06Z on Monday. The individual elements of the forecast are described below.
The daily maximum temperature is defined as the highest
temperature (in degrees F) measured at a station during the 24-hour
period beginning at 0600 UTC. Official verification for the day
is given at 0600 UTC the following day in the synoptic code
information. The temperature error is scored as the square of the
difference between the verified and the forecast temperature:
The daily minimum temperature is defined as the lowest temperature (in degrees F) measured at a station during the 24-hour period beginning at 0600 UTC. Official verification for the day is given at 0600 UTC the following day in the synoptic code information. The temperature error, E(Tmin), is scored in the same manner as is listed above.
The probability of precipitation (PoP) is the probability that at least 0.01" of precipitation (liquid equivalent for frozen precipitation) will be measured at the station using the official National Weather Service observation equipment during the 24-hour period beginning at 0600 UTC. Official verification for the day is given at 0600 UTC the following day in the synoptic code information. Note that for this contest, a trace of precipitation is scored as No precipitation.
For the forecast, percentage between 0 and 100 is entered (an integer value). The error is scored as follows:
where Obs is either 1 for precip or 0 for no precip/trace. Therefore, errors range between 0 and 100 points. Click HERE for the PoP numbers and error totals.
The precipitation category (Cat) is the amount of precipitation
(liquid equivalent for frozen precipitation) which is
measured at the station using the official National Weather Service
observation equipment during the 24-hour period beginning at 0600 UTC.
The categories are:
The error points are calculated as the double the difference between the forecast category and the verified category squared:
Therefore, for 1 precip category missed, the error is 4 pts, 2 categories = 16 pts, 3 categories = 36 pts, etc.
The weekly error total is scored as the sum of the 4 previously described forecast quantities, or
If an individual misses a forecast period, they receive the highest forecast score achieved by a valid human entry. The maximum individual score for a week is limited to 1600 points.
The forecast totals for each individual are stored and weekly totals are computed. After 5 weeks, one individual high score will be dropped. After 10 weeks, the 2 highest scores are dropped from the contest totals. Each week, the weekend results and the contest overall totals are computed and stored on this home page and are posted outside the Meteorology office, 4th floor Love Building.
Please send comments and suggestions to locmgr@met.fsu.edu.
Dept. of Meteorology