POPs Game

The contest scoring is performed by a C program that declares all the various error scoring variables as INTEGERS. Thus, truncation occurs when the Probability of Precipitation (PoP) is scored. Each forecaster is urged to "Play the PoPs Game" in order to maximize the benefit of forecasting a probability of precipitation that minimizes the potential error.

Forecast
Error
if Rain
Error if
No Rain
Forecast
Error
if Rain
Error if
No Rain
0
100
0
50
25
25
1
98
0
51
24
26
2
96
0
52
23
27
3
94
0
53
22
28
4
92
0
54
21
29
5
90
0
55
20
30
6
88
0
56
19
31
7
86
0
57
18
32
8
84
0
58
17
33
9
82
0
59
16
34
10
81
1
60
16
36
11
79
1
61
15
37
12
77
1
62
14
38
13
75
1
63
13
39
14
73
1
64
12
40
15
72
2
65
12
42
16
70
2
66
11
43
17
68
2
67
10
44
18
67
3
68
10
46
19
65
3
69
9
47
20
64
4
70
9
49
21
62
4
71
8
50
22
60
4
72
7
51
23
59
5
73
7
53
24
57
5
74
6
54
25
56
6
75
6
56
26
54
6
76
5
57
27
53
7
77
5
59
28
51
7
78
4
60
29
50
8
79
4
62
30
49
9
80
4
64
31
47
9
81
3
65
32
46
10
82
3
67
33
44
10
83
2
68
34
43
11
84
2
70
35
42
12
85
2
72
36
40
12
86
1
73
37
39
13
87
1
75
38
38
14
88
1
77
39
37
15
89
1
79
40
36
16
90
1
81
41
34
16
91
0
82
42
33
17
92
0
84
43
32
18
93
0
86
44
31
19
94
0
88
45
30
20
95
0
90
46
29
21
96
0
92
47
28
22
97
0
94
48
27
23
98
0
96
49
26
24
99
0
98
50
25
25
100
0
100