Dr. Philip Sura, Ph.D.
University of Hamburg, 2000

(850) 644-1268    http://gemini.met.fsu.edu/

Assistant Professor of Meteorology

Professor Sura’s current research is focused on the stochastic-dynamical understanding of extreme events in climate. Extreme events in climate (such as hurricanes, droughts, windstorms etc.) are by definition rare, but they can have a significant impact on affected people and countries. In non-technical terms, an extreme event is a high-impact, hard-to-predict phenomenon that is beyond our normal (Gaussian bell curve) expectations. In technical terms, an extreme event is often defined as the non-normal (non-Gaussian) tail of the data’s probability density function (PDF). Understanding extremes has become an important objective in climate variability research because climate (and weather) risk assessment depends on knowing and understanding the non-Gaussian tails of PDFs.

In recent years, new tools that make use of advanced stochastic-dynamical theory have evolved to evaluate extreme events and the physics that govern these events. These tools take advantage of the non-Gaussian structure of the PDF by linking a stochastic (probabilistic) model derived from first physical principles to the observed non-Gaussianity. The detailed assessment of non-Gaussian variability in the atmosphere and the ocean is of great practical significance because it provides a framework to predict the probability of extreme events in the climate system.

Selected Publications

• Sardeshmukh, P. D., and P. Sura, 2008: Reconciling non-Gaussian climate statistics with linear dynamics. J. Climate, submitted.
• Sura, P., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2008: A global view of non-Gaussian SST variability. J. Phys. Oceanogr., Vol. 38, 639-647.
• Sura, P., and M. Newman, 2008: The impact of rapid wind variability upon air-sea thermal coupling. J. Climate, Vol. 21, 621-637.
• Sardeshmukh, P. D., and P. Sura, 2007: Multi-scale impacts of variable heating in climate. J. Climate, Vol. 20, 5677-5695.
• Sura, P., M. Newman, and M. A. Alexander, 2006: Daily to decadal sea surface temperature variability driven by state-dependent stochastic heat fluxes. J. Phys. Oceanogr., Vol. 36, 1940-1958.
• Sura, P., M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2005: Multiplicative noise and non-Gaussianity: A paradigm for atmospheric regimes? J. Atmos. Sci., Vol. 62, 1391-1409.
• Sura, P., and S. T. Gille, 2003: Interpreting wind-driven Southern Ocean variability in a stochastic framework. J. Mar. Res., Vol. 61, 313-334.
• Sura, P., 2003: Stochastic analysis of Southern and Pacific Ocean sea surface winds. J. Atmos. Sci., Vol. 60, 654-666.
• Sura, P., and J. J. Barsugli, 2002: A note on estimating drift and diffusion parameters from timeseries. Phys. Lett. A. Vol. 305, 304-311.
• Sura, P., and C. Penland, 2002: Sensitivity of a double-gyre model to details of stochastic forcing. Ocean Modelling, Vol. 4, 327-345.
• Sura, P., 2002: Noise-induced transitions in a barotropic beta-plane channel. J. Atmos. Sci., Vol. 59, 97-110.
• Sura, P., K. Fraedrich, and F. Lunkeit, 2001: Regime transitions in a stochastically forced double-gyre model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., Vol. 31, 411-426.
• Sura, P., F. Lunkeit, and K. Fraedrich, 2000: Decadal variability in a simplified wind-driven ocean model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., Vol. 30, 1917-1930.